Odds are posted and Jeff calls it as he sees it!

MONICA

Why She’ll Win: Because she never gives up. Monica at least attempted to bring Shambo back into the fold and trick the Foa folk into voting for John.

Why She Won’t: Because none of those moves worked. Sorry, luckless hot bikini chick!

Probst’s Take: Monica wins only if she ends up in the final with Foa Foa members. I think Dave and/or Brett would defeat her in the final vote.   Overall  Odds: 30 – 1     

—————————————————————

DAVE

Why He’ll Win: He has performed well in challenges and is well liked by anyone not named Shambo.

Why He Won’t: What’s his signature move? (And no, silently mouthing the word ”wow” to himself at Tribal Council does not count.)

Probst’s Take: If he can find a way to make it to the end, he’s just wacky enough that he might pull off a completely unexpected win.

OVERALL ODDS: 25-1

———————————————————————————————————

 SHAMBO

Why She’ll Win: She went from Galu zero to Foa Foa hero when she switched sides. The impact of that move is undeniable.

Why She Won’t: The ”yoga-loving 90210” jury may respect the move, but not the player. Even Shambo’s new allies don’t seem to think highly of her.

Probst’s Take: Her betrayal of Galu combined with being on the bottom of Foa Foa makes it tough for her to win.

OVERALL ODDS: 20-1    

—————————————————————————————-

BRETT

Why He’ll Win: He’s made no enemies along the way, which I suppose is what happens when you never speak.

Why He Won’t: Never has a player made it so far and been shown so little. A winner would never get the invisible edit Brett has. I’m not even sure the other contestants know who the hell he is.

Probst’s Take: Everybody likes Brett. If Brett makes it to the end, he wins. Period.

OVERALL ODDS: 15-1     

———————————————————————————

JAISON

Why He’ll Win: One would hope the law student would know his way around a jury.

Why He Won’t: His flat demeanor often seems robotic. Can robots win Survivor? Are they even eligible? And can we please get Robot Survivor into production immediately?

Probst’s Take: If Jaison makes it to the end, he’s capable of a very compelling argument as to why he deserves the million.

OVERALL ODDS: 10-1     

————————————————————————————-

MICK

Why He’ll Win: He was voted tribal leader even though he was totally unqualified and did nothing to earn it. Foreshadowing, anyone?

Why He Won’t: The anesthesiologist practically put us to sleep all season with his (lack of) gameplay. At some point you have to do something.

Probst’s Take: To win he’ll need to face the jury, pull a mask off his face, and say ”I was playing y’all!”

OVERALL ODDS: 8-1     

———————————————————————————–

RUSSELL

Why He’ll Win: No one has played the game better. Russell found three hidden idols and got swing vote Shambo to flip.

Why He Won’t: Should the Super Survivor make it to the end, he will come face-to-face with his own personal kryptonite: one seriously bitter jury.

Probst’s Take: He could easily make it to finals, but can he get the jury vote? It’s either a slam dunk or a shutout.

OVERALL ODDS: 6-1

————————————————————————————–     

NATALIE

Why She’ll Win: She is the Amber to Russell’s Boston Rob — the nicer, prettier, more easily digestible option for vindictive jury members.

Why She Won’t: She could still be seen as a mere coattail-rider. Which she is.

Probst’s Take: She’s played a very quiet but effective game. But if she makes it to the end, she will have to work hard to convince the jury that she deserves the money.

OVERALL ODDS: 3-1

=======================================================

Jeff Probst blogs ‘Survivor: Samoa’: episode #13

Man, I gotta say… another awesome episode. Yeah I know I’m biased, but come on, that was a great show!

And now there is absolutely no debate. Foa Foa has done it. They have come back from an eight to four deficit and now are in charge of the game. Think of the odds Vegas would have given you on that not happening. Well, Vegas wouldn’t actually give you any odds, since they know the show has already been taped and they know that I would have emptied my bank account to take that bet and would now be retired living in Palau.

FIRST IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
Nobody ever said all challenges would be created equal. If there is one consistent element of Survivor challenges it’s that they’re typically not things you can practice at home. When’s the last time anybody went bowling… using a coconut for the ball. But it was a little bit exciting, right? I loved Jaison pacing around the deck “visualizing” his final immunity winning toss. But hey, it paid off and kept Jaison in the game one more day.

NATALIE DOES HER LAUNDRY
It was a small moment but I hope you caught it as it speaks to the essence of Survivor. Natalie, in the midst of living on an island with a group of strangers, battling physically, emotionally, and socially for a million dollar prize still takes the time to wash and then hang her underwear on a branch in an attempt to keep them clean. You don’t get that moment on any other show.

FIRST TRIBAL COUNCIL
I hated to see ole Danger Dave go home. It’s no secret I root for the guy. He should be proud he hung in there a long time in a very tough game, but now it’s jury time, brotha.

Monica is a risky player. All she had to do was say, “If you say Dave, I say Dave” and let it go. But Monica was playing to WIN, not take second. I appreciate that kind of play very much. The fact that it didn’t work is irrelevant. You have to be willing to make those kinds of moves to have any shot of winning.

THIS IS HOW YOU PLAY SURVIVOR
When Russell began to get worried about Mick turning on him he made a statement that speaks to the kind of game he is playing:

Russell: “That worries me that he’s gonna send me home, cause that’s what I would do.”

That sentence, especially those last six words, “cause that’s what I would do” is the absolute essence of how you should always play Survivor. John Nash, the dude that was the inspiration for the movie, “A Beautiful Mind” spelled it out clearly in his thoughts on game theory. He said you must always make your best move based on the assumption that the other person is making their best move. That means you have to get inside their head, think what their best move is, assume they will make that move and based on that make your best move.

When Russell says, “cause that’s what I would do” that is precisely what he is doing. That is how you have to play Survivor. It’s one of the main reasons Russell has been so successful in this game. He is playing an extremely intelligent game. Don’t judge that book by its cover or the lack of a tooth here or there, the guy is putting that little pirate head to good use.

SECOND IMMUNITY CHALLENGE
Hmm… might as well just use the same line I used when describing the first immunity challenge:

“Nobody ever said all challenges would be created equal. If there is one consistent element of Survivor challenges it’s that they’re typically not things you can practice at home. When’s the last time anybody…. had to jump on a board to launch a bag into a basket 12 feet in the air.”

Thirty-three days of no food reduced Monica’s body weight to such a low level that the poor thing didn’t weigh enough to even get the bag close to the basket above her head. Worse news, Brett won immunity. It forced her into a desperate position – convince two people from Foa Foa to turn on one of their own.

AND SO SHE TURNED UP THE HEAT
Monica did a good job of stirring up the dust. She did such a good job that it almost worked. And she brought up a topic that doesn’t get much attention but is often a major factor in who ends up winning the game…

I CAN MAKE OR BREAK YOU ON THE JURY
Okay, you want insight, here’s some insight. When Monica uttered those words to Russell: “I can make or break you on the jury” it was a million dollar threat. Mark my words… A million dollar THREAT.

When someone is voted out and joins the jury, there is absolutely nothing to stop them from talking to other jury members and trying to influence the vote at the final tribal council. A disgruntled jury member, (wait is that redundant?) could easily influence another jury member simply by making up a story that never happened and attribute it to someone who has made it to the final. In fact, it’s possible that one jury member could influence an entire jury. Even if we could keep the jury separated right up until tribal council, they could still talk and whisper to each other. So, what this means is you have to play an even better social game than it might appear. You have to develop such strong personal relationships that you are “lie proof” and that is not easy to do… but it is achieveable.

This season is still waaaaay up in the air. So many different ways it could turn depending on who makes it to the final.

We have two weeks left. Next Thursday and then the finale the following Sunday.

100 thoughts on “Odds are posted and Jeff calls it as he sees it!

  1. aggie…I got it too….what a Christmas present.
    I’ll have 2 please. I hope we’re talking about the
    same one. If not….2 anyway.

    and Liz…you naught girl…..I likey :lol:

  2. @ starfish….

    Thanks so much for the link to Rainbow Bridge. I have added
    it to my favorites for future. Today seems like a better day, so
    maybe the antibiotics are starting to work. She stays on antiobitics all the time now. Each time she has another bout
    of this, they give her something stronger. I guess eventually,
    there will be a time when nothing else will work. Neither her nor I are quite ready to call it quits. To look at her….she looks
    like she is still only 2 or 3 years old. She looks very healthy.
    That’s what makes it that much harder.

    Thanks to all for the concerns and best wishes.

  3. Hi everyone… Have to agree that this is one of the best Survivors yet… Kind of wondered at the start. Only three hours left. Can Russell pull it off? I think I would rather see Shambo win over Jaison and Mick. Lots to read above and haven’t seen Monica arrive at Ponderosa yet. Would not load right and kept stalling yesterday. I thought her final words were nice and she had her head on straight. She knew she was doomed when Brett won the II.

  4. I agree with Probst, yes Monica can make up all the lies she wants and maybe even influence the jury but was she as well liked as all that? This is definitely a “be nice” game. It was a great show and I’m looking forward to Thursday big time. As for who wins, the jury is an evolving body with many mixed emotions and they could swing one way or the other in a minute unless they make their decision based on game play and not emotions. This is a complicated chess game and I think Russell is playing best.

    @frannie – You’re welcome! It’s a great site. I hope your kitty continues to keep on keepin on. Good for her and you too! If we all looked 15 years younger than we are, that would be just wonderful. ;) Oh, and what is it you want 2 of?

    Have a great Sunday everyone!

  5. Well it’s snowing… have to go find the tire chains. Never like to be proactive with these things. hahahaha…. in fact, I’d better get some groceries too. Once the hill freezes there’s no getting down. So it’s walking to town, which of course wouldn’t hurt.

    Will be watching the Texans with Sal today.

  6. @ starfish….it was in the e-mail that aggie sent out.
    A guy dancing naked…..with a Christmas stocking on.
    Just my sick mind…that’s all

  7. Morning Frannie, Ted, Starfish, Aggie………..hey Aggie if you’re sending naked dancing men, how did I get missed? Better go check my e-mail!!
    Ted, I just don’t see how TGO can lose, do you? Well da Bears started so I better go watch them lose again, very depressing football season for those in Chicago.
    The devilish little one is on her way over and her momma just called crying!! Not good, she said this baby is sooo spoiled! I have no idea how that could have happened??!!
    I can’t explain to my daughter that she should be greatful for all these moments, she isn’t in the mood to “hear it”, but I am very greatful for everything the little demon does. She was 9 weeks premature and only weighed 3 lbs so the fact that she is so feisty is probably what helped her get thru her touch and go beginning to life!

  8. So I guess Probst is trying to tell us that Natalie is the winner. Nat is my second choice to win..unlike Jaison and Mick she actually did something in the game. She was the reason why the Galus turned on Erik. If not TGO then Nat deserve to win.

  9. Yeah Donna P, that’s what I take from it too. How can somebody that was there for the filming of the entire show make predictions?

    I guess my prediction (based on what Jeff “predicted”) is that Russell and Natalie are final 2. Natalie wins in a unanimous vote by a bitter jury.

    If this is what happens, I will be extremely disappointed. Not that Nat doesn’t deserve to win… but in a shutout? Sorry, that doesn’t sit well with me. Also disappointed that people give away too much info. Jeff, you do a great job on the show, but you were there! Please… no “predictions” from you.

  10. No one knows who wins until the live show finale. The votes get sealed until Sunday nights show. Jeff can guess but thats all.

  11. @Jt, I was thinking the same thing about Probst’s predictions. Thanks Sal for straightening that one out.

    @Ted, how far is it into town? Had to walk my dog in the rain the last couple of days and loved it. We’re no where near the mud slide homes. When this next storm rumbles it, there could be big mud trouble.

    Thanks Frannie. Dancing naked men? Take two sweetie, I agree. LOL

    @Holly, aren’t grandchildren great?? Sounds like she was determined to have her way and live so she’ll probably get her way the rest of her life. Bless Her!! Poor mom. :razz:

    Would love to see Russell win it now. The jury is a crap shoot. Wouldn’t it be great if they cut down on the opening review and gave us tidbits of what’s going on with the jury?. Just some teasers into their thinking would be fun. Yes???

  12. So the game’s not over for you when you go to the jury land…i hope it’s put to good use.
    and i hope Natalie wins. she has NOT been a coat tail rider. the little thing has been very tough. I admire her and i know she’s using alot of self control with Russ. I’m sure if they were not on the show she’d tell him how she feels about “being called a dumbass blonde” makes me wonder when the members all saw the show later, if they regret being so cowardly towards russ. Sure he’s played it great. (the game) i just wish he’d keep HIS mouth shut more.
    Natalie is a class act and a player by keeping herself so humble to kiss the ass of the troll. I hope she gets paid highly for it.
    Remember stephanie? she was one of my favorite of all time , players.
    Usually i think even when the jury is bitter it seems someone goes in or something and gives a speech of “don’t ‘not’ pick the one you’re feeling bitter towards…..pick the one who played the game the best, no rules becuz it seems they end up picking the one they seem to not like so often.
    jaison is stupid if he trusts russ. Before there’s not enough of them left the rest need to vote as one. I’ve never seen so many cowards…cuz all the brave ones got voted out becuz russie threw a temper tantrum and lost control and demanded they be voted out. what cracked me up everytime is he would say “she threatened me” now if you really believe that….come on, becuz a girl would say i know you can’t be trusted or i know you make money or have the idol or anything like that is a threat to a man three times your size then anything said in the jury house to get votes aimed a certain way is AOK with me.

  13. Hi… I wondered that too, JT… I knew the votes are sealed and that there are monitors on site to make sure there is no tampering. Maybe, he writes this as the show is in production. That might make sense. Hey… just saw a Survivor commercial… From the looks of it Shambo is sitting out, and Natalie may have won. Who knows… Oh I know, US… but not till Thurs.

  14. Worst weekend in football… the Bears lost to the Packers! I have to find my black armband. I guess it’s to be expected this year, they have not been able to recover from the loss of Brian Urlacher. Well, it looks like Dallas is screwed now. Jerry Jones is pissed… hahaha!

    Well at least Sal, JT and AC are happy!

  15. Liz… yes, Aggie has been a busy forwarder… caught me by surprise and I’m sure she is laughing her ass off! I hear you had another date last night Aggie… where did you go? I’m starving for news from Chicago!

  16. Yeah Ted, I’m pretty happy that the Vikes won. I really thought the Bengals would put up a good fight. I was rooting for the Bears too…. big time!! Now I’ll be rooting for the Steelers to break their losing streak next Sunday against those hated Packers. Worst football Sunday for me may have been last Sunday. Vikings, Cowboys, Texans, and Titans all lost. At least 3 of them got their act together this week.

  17. Tendr… Stephanie was my favorite female Survivor! Would love to see her on SS20, but she has moved on with her life after Survivor. Your talk about making orange bread has inspired me… I’m making Orange Glazed Chicken… smells great!

    Holly… one of my daughters was 7 weeks early and under 4lbs… that was scary… now she is bigger than her sister who was 8.7lbs.

    Starfish… 2 miles to town… I should walk it more often, but I’m too lazy!

    Going to Ponderosa now… hopefully it will load up and not stall.

  18. It would make sense that Jeff writes his blogs as the show goes. I always thought that was the case. But something in the wording of his blog about Russell S leaving the show led me to believe that he was looking at the distant past? Maybe he was just reflecting on what had happened only a day or two before. I’ll still stick with Natalie as a decisive winner.

  19. LOL Ted, I was a bit late getting home and missed the first few minutes of the game! I’ll take your word that it was great.

  20. Less than 90 minutes til the season finale of Dexter. What do you think Cyn? Will Dexter get his man? …or will this story carry over into season 5? Personally, I hope Dex ends it tonight… I’m not a John Lithgow fan. Is it 8pm yet?

  21. Liz, yeah it was dancing Russian guy very funny even Ted liked that one Thanks Liz, Ted, iwas at a party at my sisters yeaterday ,didnt get home till 2:oo AM. of course i was the designated driver, being not much of a drinker, It was a good party.

  22. Sorry JT… I meant the Texans game. TD first play. Brett came through again… at least this Brett does something! Saw Monica’s entrance to Ponderosa… she looked really nervous. Interesting thing… as she went to take a shower and get cleaned up for the first time she was taking her flashlight with her. I think she subconsciously thought she was still in the jungle. And looking in the mirror for the first time… what a shock that would be. We look in the mirror every day… that would be weird.

  23. I have yet to see one person on here that hasn’t made a typo. We feel the need to correct ours… but everybody else just reads right through them.

  24. Hey you 2… why do think Aggie did a fly by??? I like the edit feature JT. I strive for perfection and don’t like to make an incorrect post.

  25. Oh, Aggie I need to live vicariously through you too! How is it to date?? I vaguely remember those days but from what I remember, it was a blast!
    JT, I love Dexter too. He is the creepiest yet nicest serial killer ever!
    Ted, I thought you said Stephanie was gonna be on Allstars?! There is really nothing to be said about the Bears this season, except maybe, how sad!
    Donna, in total agreement about Natalie, she absolutely was instrumental in getting Erik out which started the fall of Galu. Besides that, she is a fighter and a rat killer, love me some Natalie!!
    Starfish that little girl is the light of my life and the only one my children say I will ever get so if that is the case, she will be much more spoiled than she already is!

  26. You should see me on yahoo chat….it’s everything goes.
    It can be a mess…but I can fix instantly. If the other person
    makes mistakes too…then the heck with it. As long as we know what we were trying to say.

  27. Okay… I see our comments crossed in cyberspace! My point exactly… and you know that I am not one to point fingers… HaHaHa

  28. Hey Holly, great to have another Dexter fan here! Dexter means well… he just has issues and takes it out on people that deserve it. How do you want this season to end?

  29. JT… I agree about Monica… yes, she really thinks she was quite the game player… but even deluded, it’s better than thinking you are a loser. And Eric, that sly dog, is now hitting on Monica… don’t blame him.

  30. It is good to have a positive image of yourself.. I’ll give Monica credit for that. And maybe she did play a great game. If so, CBS must have edited out all of her wonderful strategy.

  31. Ok, I’ve changed my other mind about Russell. After reading Tendr’s and Nancy’s comments I agree that Natalie played a strategic game and to put up with Russell took great mind control or is it temper control? However, Russell still seems to be the chess master right now but Natalie seems to know how to work the game without the bravado.

    Go Aggie!

    Ted, 4 miles in one day, that is great if you do it 3 times a week just think how much cake and ice cream you can eat. :)

  32. Hi everyone, aggie are you still there?? We keep missing! Thanks for naked guy, although when it came on my volume was up and it startled me!

    Ted don’t listen to all the haters, I love the Shamfro!!!

    How bout those Bears!!

    JT, not sure how I want it to end? I still haven’t watched last weeks episode, I’m saving it so I can watch both of them tonight and I can’t wait…………as soon as hubby gets home we will be watching so I’ll BBL if you want to discuss!

  33. Good call Aggie… I’m not homophobic… I just don’t have any interest in looking at men! Feel free to forward any dancing ladies that you come across. :lol: :cool:

  34. Dexter Spoiler Alert?…. sort of.

    Aggie, (without giving anything away to Holly or Cynthia). That was the most POWERFUL episode of ANY tv show I have ever watched….. ending wise.

    I am absolutely speechless, stunned, almost numb. My jaw hit the couch.

    WOW, I didn’t see that coming at all…. those producers at showtime really got some set of balls.

    It reminds me of a particular movie… but to name that movie now would be a dead giveaway to those who haven’t watched the final episode yet….. all I can do is shake my head in disbelief…. maybe I’ve already said too much.

    I’d say this Aggie… give Dexter another try. Based on what I have read about shows/movies you have liked… I think you’d love it. You can always decide to quit watching… it’s not for everybody.

  35. I hope whoever watched Dexter got a chance to see the one on one conversation about the finale between Michael C Hall and John Lithgow. I’ll be going to Showtime .com to watch the rest of it now. BBL….

  36. JT, OMG, can you even believe that ending??? WTF, it was crazy, unexpected, sad, etc………….. I’m with you, my jaw hit the floor, too! I have to go recover.

    Hi Aggie, just doing a fly by

  37. Hey Holly, sorry I missed the flyby..LOL. I’ll do a quick flyby myself.

    Nope, can’t believe it. I watched a 2nd time… same ending. It was one of very few moments I can remember where they do such a great job leading up to the big reveal. They throw in clues and each one becomes less subtle. A phone message, a phone ringing, a baby crying…. etc. And with each clue your mouth drops a bit further, the hair on the back of your neck stands a little higher. You almost know what is coming, but you still don’t trust your instincts. I think I silently mouthed the words, “No f-ing way”, as everything unfolded.

    I can think off hand of 2 movies that did the same thing to me. I guess it is ok to name them now. One was The Sixth Sense. The stories are nothing alike, but the technique used at the end was similar. The other that came to mind right away of course was the movie Seven. For now, I’ll leave it at that.

  38. Nice present Ac, being such a fair skinned girl, it would have been nicer if he had a tan at least, or better yet Russell kairouz 8 in. Taller.. just love them tall dark and sexylicious ,you know what i mean.

  39. HOLY MOTHER—-JT—-HOLLY—WOW WOW WOW WOW!!! I’ve watched Dexter THREE times tonight & all three times —all I can think is Holy F#ing Chit!!! Soooooooooo sad about Rita but dammit man—-WOW!!! I wonder what will happen to the kids now?? Obviously Dexter & Deb will keep his kid but will the grandparents get the other two?? Or will they stay with Dex?? That bastard Trinity deserved to DIE DIE DIE!!!! That chit had my hair on my neck on ends too JT!! My sister & I both just sat there staring at each other saying, “WTF??? Did you see that???” She actually grabbed my arm & cracked a nail she grabbed so hard. :lol: That was soooooooo awesome. SAD but WOW!!!! You know Dex will come back with a vengeance now for sure. Cause he’s going to blame himself for all of it. And what about Deb?? I thought for sure she was going to out Dexter. But no—she still loves him. WOW!!! That whole show was awesome!!! And now we wait for next season. :sad: I WANT MORE DEXTER NOW DAMMIT!!! Did I mention it was WOW!!! :lol:

    Ok I got that out of my system. I thought about you JT wondering what you were thinking about it. Yes it was a lot like Seven & The Sixth Sense–two of my favorites. GREAT ENDING!!

    Oh Aggie –thanks for the e-mail—-I only need one–but can I get mine in a tan color please?? :mrgreen:

    I have to lay down now!! I’m very sleepy from my nerves being on edgelike that. LMAO See you guys & gals later!!

    Peace!!
    OH–umm— SURVIVOR :lol:

  40. Dexter… funny thing its filmed in my neighborhood… Dexter and CSI Miami (yup filmed in long beach, Cali far from Miami, lol)… so the scene when Trinity gets his car then you see him driving down the street with buildings around him.. after he passes my babysitters building (lol) on Ocean blvd he approaches a big tall building… this is it: http://longbeachforsale.com/VillaRiviera/ …i’ve seen a lot of the filming of CSI (as close as the LBPD let you get anyways) and saw Horatio one time but usually can only catch a view of the Crew and extras! Kinda boring but the crew is really nice… i rather see the crew on any set then the cast anyways… pretty funny guys!

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